DraftHistory.com

The Dallas Cowboys were the only Team to Benefit by Switching Quarterbacks in 2016

By Chris Malumphy

Nine NFL franchises had different quarterbacks lead their team in pass attempts in 2015 and 2016. While nine quarterback changes is more than 28% of the league's teams, 2016 was tied for the fewest number of such changes this century.

Results were mixed, but overall for the worse. The Dallas Cowboys improved dramatically. The Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles each finished with the same record both seasons. The Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, and Cleveland Browns all fared worse than the year before.

Primary Quarterback Changes from 2015 to 2016
20152016Rating
Difference
TeamNameAttYdsAvgPctTDIntRatingNameAttYdsAvgPctTDIntRating
CowboysMatt Cassel20412766.358.35770.6Dak Prescott45936678.067.8234104.934.3
BroncosPeyton Manning33122496.859.891767.9Trevor Siemian48634017.059.5181084.616.7
VikingsTeddy Bridgewater44732317.265.314988.7Sam Bradford55238777.071.620599.310.6
RamsNick Foles33720526.156.471069.0Case Keenum32222016.860.991176.47.4
49ersBlaine Gabbert28220317.263.110786.2Colin Kaepernick33122416.859.216490.74.5
BrownsJosh McCown29221097.263.712493.3Cody Kessler19513807.165.66292.3-1.0
EaglesSam Bradford53237257.065.0191486.4Carson Wentz60737826.262.4161479.3-7.1
TexansBrian Hoyer36926067.160.719791.4Brock Osweiler51029575.859.0151672.2-19.2
BearsJay Cutler48336597.664.4211192.3Matt Barkley21616117.559.781468.3-24.0

Broncos: The Denver Broncos replaced the retired Peyton Manning and went from a 12-4 Super Bowl Championship season in 2015 to a 9-7 record in 2016. Even though Trevor Siemian clearly passed better in 2016 than the aged and injured Peyton Manning did a year earlier, he failed to lead the Broncos backed to the playoffs. Now Siemien will have to battle Paxton Lynch, and perhaps others, to hold onto his job in 2017.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys benefitted the most from a change in quarterbacks. Dallas had hoped that Tony Romo would return to action in 2016 after missing most of 2015 due to injury. The Cowboys wishes did not come true as Romo was injured yet again. Nevertheless, Dallas improved from 4-12 to 13-3 behind the strong performance of rookies Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott. In 2015, Matt Cassel threw the most passes for Dallas after Romo was injured and Brandon Weeden was found wanting. Cassel's miserable rating of 70.6 belied the fact that he once had a legitimate Pro Bowl season in 2010. Prescott's stellar 2016 rookie campaign resulted in a passing rating of 104.9, over 34 points better than the Cassel of 2015, and led the Cowboys into the playoffs. Now that Tony Romo has retired, the Cowboys' offense is firmly in Prescott's hands. Only a severe sophomore slump could dampen the bright future prospects of Prescott and Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings season appeared to go down the drain during the preseason when Teddy Bridgewater suffered his devastating injury. The Vikings had high hopes coming off an 11-5 season that had been thwarted by a missed chip shot field goal attempt that could have beaten the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota responded quickly to the injury, however, by obtaining Sam Bradford from the Eagles. Bradford actually out-passed Bridgewater's 2015 performance, but he failed to get the team into the playoffs as Bridgewater had done in 2015. Riddled by injuries at several positions, the Vikings fell from 11-5 to 8-8. The price for Bradford was steep and his ceiling seems to be fixed and well known. While he is an adequate quarterback, he is not of the game-changing franchise variety. But perhaps Bridgewater isn't either. It will be interesting to see which direction the Vikings take if Bridgewater is ever able to get back on the field.

Houston Texans: The Texans have been one of those teams that has been on and off the cusp of greatness for several years with undoubtedly their biggest weakness being at quarterback. Brian Hoyer played relatively decent football for the Texans in 2015 until suffering a severe melt down in the playoffs that resulted in a 30-0 shellacking by the Kansas City Chiefs. Having lost confidence in Hoyer, Houston overpaid wildly for Brock Osweiler. Osweiler was a disaster finishing with a passing rating that was nearly 20 points lower than what Hoyer had achieved a year earlier. Nevertheless, the team finished 9-7 both seasons and the Texans once again made the playoffs, this time with a first round victory. During the off-season, the Texans essentially paid the Browns a second round draft choice to take Osweiler's contract off their hands. Now, their starting quarterback is seemingly Tom Savage. We have some doubts about that. Like the Browns, the Texans are seeking to draft or trade for a reasonable facsimile of a franchise quarterback. It is difficult to imagine the New England Patriots trading quarterback Jimmy Garappolo to a potential AFC playoff rival, so the Texans will either need to look to the draft for a quarterback or sign someone like Jay Cutler to fill their needs. DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are counting on the team being successful in that pursuit before the Texans' window of opportunity closes.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles made the bold decision to replace 2015 starter Sam Bradford even though he had led them to a respectable 9-7 season by trading up with the Browns to take a potential franchise quarterback Carson Wentz with the second pick in the 2016 draft. Bradford has been a decent, but oft injured, quarterback who has never lived up to being the first choice in the 2010 draft. The move neither helped nor hurt the teams' record as the Eagles once again finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. Wentz got off to a great start in 2016 but soon faltered. Overall, he played worse than Sam Bradford had in 2015 by 7.1 rating points. Wentz wasn't as accurate, didn't get the ball downfield as far, and had more trouble getting it into the endzone. Yet his ceiling remains high whereas Bradford's was known and found wanting. The Eagles are still happy with the trade, but Wentz definitely needs further development.

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams obtained the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft and drafted Jared Goff with the intent of developing him into a franchise quarterback. They knew it might take some time. Coach Jeff Fisher turned to Case Keenum as the placeholder for Goff and the replacement for Nick Foles who led the team in attempts in 2015. Although Keenum improved upon Foles' passing rating by 7.4 points, the results on the field were actually worse and the Rams went from 7-9 to 4-12. Goff took over towards the latter portion of the season and even though he didn't play well, absent injury, the job is his. Keenum is now with the Vikings and it is unlikely that he will ever again get as much playing time as he did in 2016. Foles played for the Chiefs in 2016 and has since rejoined the Eagles, where he once had some success, to serve as a backup in 2017.

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers switched quarterbacks midseason in 2016 due to lackluster play. The move didn't help as the 49ers fell from 5-11 in 2015 to 2-14 in 2016. In 2015, Blaine Gabbert wrested the starting quarterback job from an injury-riddled Colin Kaepernick and continued in the starting role for the first several weeks of the 2016 season. Then Kaepernick overcame his injuries and won the job back. By some measures, Kaepernick did a decent job, throwing 16 touchdowns with only four interceptions and earning a 90.7 rating. But that wasn't really much of an improvement over Gabbert's 2015 rating of 86.2 and the 49ers remained a woeful team in need of a dramatic overhaul to overcome the downward spiral that began just a few short years ago after former coach Jim Harbaugh and Kaepernick had taken the team to a Super Bowl. Last year's quarterbacks are now gone and the team will start over with Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and, presumably, a 2017 draft choice to be developed by new head coach Kyle Shanahan.

Chicago Bears: Sour puss Jay Cutler led the Bears at quarterback in 2015 just as he had done since 2009. Injury caused him to miss a sizable portion of 2016. His initial replacement was backup Brian Hoyer who threw 200 passes without an interception. But Hoyer's efforts didn't lead to many victories and then he was injured too. Ultimately, Matt Barkley ended up with the most pass attempts for the team with 216. Heading into 2016, Barkley had only 40 career attempts with 39 in 2013, one in 2014 and none in 2015. While he had a few promising moments on the field, Barkley did not protect the ball well, throwing 14 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns. Compare that to Hoyer who did not throw even one interception in just 16 fewer attempts. Barkley finished with a rating of 68.2, which was 24 points below what Cutler had achieved in 2015. That was the biggest rating drop off of any team. Chicago released Cutler and both Hoyer and Barkley signed with the 49ers. The Bears will now turn the reigns over to former Buccaneer starter Mike Glennon. They are also likely to draft another quarterback. Unless you stretch and count Jim McMahon, Cutler, or Billy Wade, the Bears haven't had a truly praiseworthy quarterback for more than a year or two in decades. Sid Luckman, from the 1940s, might still be the best Bears quarterback ever.

Cleveland Browns: The Cleveland planned to switch quarterbacks in 2016 from the very beginning, only they didn't foresee third round rookie Cody Kessler getting on the field, let alone leading the team in pass attempts. The plan had been for Robert Griffin to replace 2015 starter Josh McCown. But Griffin was injured in the season opener and McCown followed him to the infirmary after game two. Kessler was thrown into action by default and his performance was surprisingly good. Kessler finished with a 92.3 rating, nearly matching the 93.3 mark McCown had in 2015. Unfortunately for Kessler, the Browns woeful offensive line, which allowed 64 sacks during the season, couldn't protect Kessler either and he went down with two concussions causing him to miss a few starts as well. Retread Charlie Whitehurst was brought in for one game but he succumbed to injury as well. Even fourth string rookie backup Kevin Hogan was thrown into action, gaining 104 yards rushing against the Bengals compared to 100 through the air. The Browns record dipped from 3-13 to 1-15. McCown, Griffin and Whitehurst are no longer with Cleveland, but Brock Osweiler is, at least for the moment. Neither Kessler or Osweiler appear to be the solution the Browns are looking for. The Browns are intent on finding a quarterback somehow, somewhere, in the draft or via trade. In the 2016 draft, the Eagles paid the Browns a ransom to select quarterback Carson Wentz, he of little experience at a small college. Browns' fans were furious that the team had traded down once again, bypassing the opportunity to select a potential franchise quarterback. And rightfully so. Continuing their search for a quarterback in the draft, Cleveland is now considering taking Mitchell Trubisky, who played at a college better known for basketball and who has even less experience than Wentz had. Exacerbating the issue is that the consensus is that the Browns should select defensive end Myles Garrett with the number one pick in the draft. Fortunately, Cleveland also has the 12th choice in the first round. But in the quarterback needy NFL, even in a supposedly bad year for quarterbacks coming out of college, Trubisky and other top quarterback choices like Deshaun Watson may be gone by then. The Browns could reverse there usual strategy and actually trade up but the cost of doing so may be even greater than the booty Cleveland received from the Eagles last year. Tne New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals continue to tell the Browns that Jimmy Garappolo and AJ McCarron are unavailable. Whether that is true or just a ploy to jack up the price is unknown. If only there was a stock boy working in the back of some grocery like Kurt Warner to put an end to the Cleveland fans' pain.

Looking forward to the 2017 season it is already evident that the Rams, 49ers, Bears, Texans and likely the Browns will once again have changes at quarterback with new leaders in pass attempts. The New York Jets will also join that group as may some other teams whose quarterbacks may be felled either by injury or sub par play.

For teams seeking a quarterback, there is always the hope of the draft. Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Patrick Mahomes and David Webb are currently considered the cream of the 2017 quarterback draft crop, although the group is said to be weaker than usual. 2016 opening day starters Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Robert Griffin are also looking for work, as is Colin Kaepernick.

Browns, 49ers, Bears, Titans & Jaguars Enter 2017 NFL Draft with Most Value [Updated]

By Chris Malumphy

The Cleveland Browns have far and away the most draft value entering the 2017 NFL Draft. Using the draft value chart developed by Jimmy Johnson decades ago, the Browns 11 picks have an overall value of nearly 2,000 points more than their closest competitior. The 49ers, Bears, Titans and Jaguars have the next most value. At the tail end of the scale, the Patriots now have the least value in the 2017 Draft (after trades made at the onset of free agency) followed by the Vikings, Rams and Falcons. As the Super Bowl champions, with a new shiny wide receiver in Brandin Cooks, the Patriots don't have many oustanding needs that the draft would necessarily fix. The Rams and Vikings, on the other hand, both paid big time to obtain quarterbacks last season, moves that may haunt them, especially the Rams who have numerous needs, for some time. Rams rookie coach Sean McVay, at 31 the youngest coach in the league, certainly finds himself in a tough spot. If quarterback Jared Goff cannot be developed quickly, McVay may find himself one of the youngest coaches ever fired. And this analysis coming without McVay even having yet coached his first game. A bad record, with no draft picks of much value, and uncertainty at quarterback situation creates such precarious situations. He probably has two years to get things going in the right direction, with no help likely to come from the draft this year.

Draft Value 2017 Summary by Team with Records
TeamPicksTotal
Value
Avg
Value
WinsLossesTiesPctPoIntAllowedDifference
Browns115,614.50510.4111500.063264452-188
49ers103,625.90362.5921400.125309480-171
Bears73,163.60451.9431300.188279399-120
Titans82,957.40369.689700.5633813783
Jaguars82,728.80341.1031300.188318400-82
Saints62,546.50424.427900.43846945415
Panthers82,391.50298.9461000.375369402-33
Chargers72,373.30339.0451100.313410423-13
Bengals112,241.35203.766910.40632531510
Bills62,043.40340.577900.43839937821
Eagles81,930.10241.267900.43836733136
Cardinals81,925.30240.667810.46941836256
Colts71,830.70261.538800.50041139219
Ravens71,825.00260.718800.50034332122
Redskins101,716.90171.698710.53139638313
Broncos101,596.55159.669700.56333329736
Buccaneers71,531.10218.739700.563354369-15
Lions81,422.90177.869700.563346358-12
Seahawks71,345.20192.1710510.65635429262
Giants71,337.50191.0711500.68831028426
Dolphins71,321.30188.7610600.625363380-17
Chiefs101,308.95130.9012400.75038931178
Raiders81,308.60163.5812400.75041638531
Texans71,296.90185.279700.563279328-49
Steelers81,181.70147.7111500.68839932772
Packers81,150.65143.8310600.62543238844
Cowboys71,143.00163.2913300.813421306115
Falcons61,057.55176.2611500.688540406134
Rams8941.10117.6441200.250224394-170
Vikings8913.40114.188800.50032730720
Patriots8552.3069.0414200.875441250191

Draft Value 2017 Team Detail and Record
49ers
2-14-0 (0.125) PTS = 309 PA = 480 Difference = -171
Picks = 10
Total Value = 3,625.90
Avg Value = 362.59
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1222600.00  
2234560.00  
3266260.00  
4210976.00  
43614334.50compensatory pick
5214633.00  
51716128.00Redskins
6218618.00  
61820211.60Broncos
712194.80Browns
Bears
3-13-0 (0.188) PTS = 279 PA = 399 Difference = -120
Picks = 7
Total Value = 3,163.60
Avg Value = 451.94
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1332200.00  
2436540.00  
3367255.00  
4411172.00  
41011760.00Bills
5314732.60  
732214.00  
Bengals
6-9-1 (0.406) PTS = 325 PA = 315 Difference = 10
Picks = 11
Total Value = 2,241.35
Avg Value = 203.76
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1991350.00  
2941490.00  
3973225.00  
4911662.00  
43113837.00compensatory pick
5915331.20  
53217622.00compensatory pick
6919315.20  
6332175.60compensatory pick
792272.70  
7332510.65compensatory pick
Bills
7-9-0 (0.438) PTS = 399 PA = 378 Difference = 21
Picks = 6
Total Value = 2,043.40
Avg Value = 340.57
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
110101300.00  
21244460.00  
31175215.00  
51215630.00  
52717124.00Cowboys
61119514.40  
Broncos
9-7-0 (0.563) PTS = 333 PA = 297 Difference = 36
Picks = 10
Total Value = 1,596.55
Avg Value = 159.66
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12020850.00  
21951390.00  
31882180.00  
33710196.00compensatory pick
42012745.00  
53317721.60compensatory pick
61920311.20Titans
7202381.60  
7342520.60compensatory pick
7352530.55compensatory pick
Browns
1-15-0 (0.063) PTS = 264 PA = 452 Difference = -188
Picks = 11
Total Value = 5,614.50
Avg Value = 510.41
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1113000.00  
112121200.00Eagles
2133580.00  
22052380.00Titans
3165265.00  
4110878.00  
5114533.50  
53117522.40Patriots
53718120.00compensatory pick
6118518.40  
6418817.20Texans via Bears
Buccaneers
9-7-0 (0.563) PTS = 354 PA = 369 Difference = -15
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,531.10
Avg Value = 218.73
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
11919875.00  
21850400.00  
32084170.00  
41912646.00  
51816227.60  
62020410.80  
7192371.70  
Cardinals
7-8-1 (0.469) PTS = 418 PA = 362 Difference = 56
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,925.30
Avg Value = 240.66
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
113131150.00  
21345450.00  
31377205.00  
41312054.00  
51315729.60  
53517920.80compensatory pick
61319713.60  
7132312.30  
Chargers
5-11-0 (0.313) PTS = 410 PA = 423 Difference = -13
Picks = 7
Total Value = 2,373.30
Avg Value = 339.04
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1771500.00  
2638520.00  
3771235.00  
4611368.00  
5715131.00  
6619016.40  
772252.90  
Chiefs
12-4-0 (0.750) PTS = 389 PA = 311 Difference = 78
Picks = 10
Total Value = 1,308.95
Avg Value = 130.90
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12727680.00  
22759310.00  
32791136.00  
34010486.00compensatory pick
42513240.00  
52617024.40  
53618020.40compensatory pick
6322166.00compensatory pick
6342185.20compensatory pick
7272450.95  
Colts
8-8-0 (0.500) PTS = 411 PA = 392 Difference = 19
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,830.70
Avg Value = 261.53
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
115151050.00  
21446440.00  
31680190.00  
41512250.00  
43013737.50Patriots
43714434.00compensatory pick
51415829.20  
Cowboys
13-3-0 (0.813) PTS = 421 PA = 306 Difference = 115
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,143.00
Avg Value = 163.29
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12828660.00  
22860300.00  
32892132.00  
42613339.50  
6272118.00  
7102282.60Bills
7282460.90  
Dolphins
10-6-0 (0.625) PTS = 363 PA = 380 Difference = -17
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,321.30
Avg Value = 188.76
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12222780.00  
22254360.00  
33397112.00compensatory pick
52216626.00  
53417821.20compensatory pick
54018418.80compensatory pick
752233.30Rams
Eagles
7-9-0 (0.438) PTS = 367 PA = 331 Difference = 36
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,930.10
Avg Value = 241.26
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
114141100.00Vikings
21143470.00  
31074220.00  
41211956.00  
43213936.50Browns compensatory pick
51115530.40  
61019414.80  
7122302.40  
Falcons
11-5-0 (0.688) PTS = 540 PA = 406 Difference = 134
Picks = 6
Total Value = 1,057.55
Avg Value = 176.26
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
13131600.00  
23163276.00  
33195120.00  
42913638.00  
53017422.80  
7312490.75  
Giants
11-5-0 (0.688) PTS = 310 PA = 284 Difference = 26
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,337.50
Avg Value = 191.07
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12323760.00  
22355350.00  
32387155.00  
43314036.00down from 130 walkie-talkie fine
52316725.60  
6232079.60  
7232411.30  
Jaguars
3-13-0 (0.188) PTS = 318 PA = 400 Difference = -82
Picks = 8
Total Value = 2,728.80
Avg Value = 341.10
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1441800.00  
2335550.00  
3468250.00  
4311074.00  
5414832.20  
6318717.60  
742223.60  
7222401.40Dolphins
Lions
9-7-0 (0.563) PTS = 346 PA = 358 Difference = -12
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,422.90
Avg Value = 177.86
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12121800.00  
22153370.00  
32185165.00  
42112844.00  
52116526.40  
62120510.40  
6312156.40Patriots
7322500.70Patriots
Packers
10-6-0 (0.625) PTS = 432 PA = 388 Difference = 44
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,150.65
Avg Value = 143.83
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12929640.00  
22961292.00  
32993128.00  
42713439.00  
52817223.60  
53818219.60compensatory pick
6282127.60  
7292470.85  
Panthers
6-10-0 (0.375) PTS = 369 PA = 402 Difference = -33
Picks = 8
Total Value = 2,391.50
Avg Value = 298.94
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1881400.00  
2840500.00  
23264270.00Patriots
33498108.00compensatory pick
4811564.00  
5815231.80  
6819215.60  
7152332.10Colts through Browns
Patriots
14-2-0 (0.875) PTS = 441 PA = 250 Difference = 191
Picks = 8
Total Value = 552.30
Avg Value = 69.04
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
3872230.00Panthers
33296116.00  
33910388.00Browns compensatory pick
41111858.00Saints
51916327.20Broncos
53918319.20compensatory pick
61620012.40Colts
7212391.50Lions
Raiders
12-4-0 (0.750) PTS = 416 PA = 385 Difference = 31
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,308.60
Avg Value = 163.58
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12424740.00  
22456340.00  
32488150.00  
42313042.00  
52416825.20  
6242089.20  
7242421.20  
7262441.00Seahawks
Rams
4-12-0 (0.250) PTS = 224 PA = 394 Difference = -170
Picks = 8
Total Value = 941.10
Avg Value = 117.64
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
2537530.00  
3569245.00  
4511270.00  
43414135.50compensatory pick
5514931.80  
6518916.80  
62220610.00Dolphins
7162342.00Ravens
Ravens
8-8-0 (0.500) PTS = 343 PA = 321 Difference = 22
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,825.00
Avg Value = 260.71
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
116161000.00  
21547430.00  
31478200.00  
33599104.00compensatory pick
41612349.00  
51515928.80  
61419813.20  
Redskins
8-7-1 (0.531) PTS = 396 PA = 383 Difference = 13
Picks = 10
Total Value = 1,716.90
Avg Value = 171.69
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
11717950.00  
21749410.00  
31781185.00  
4711466.00Jets
41712448.00  
51015430.80Saints
61720112.00  
6252098.80Texans
722204.4049ers
7172351.90  
Saints
7-9-0 (0.438) PTS = 469 PA = 454 Difference = 15
Picks = 6
Total Value = 2,546.50
Avg Value = 424.42
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
111111250.00  
13232590.00Patriots
21042480.00  
31276210.00  
61219614.00  
7112292.50  
Seahawks
10-5-1 (0.656) PTS = 354 PA = 292 Difference = 62
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,345.20
Avg Value = 192.17
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12626700.00  
22658320.00  
32690140.00  
33810292.00compensatory pick
34210682.00compensatory pick
6262108.40  
782262.80Panthers
Steelers
11-5-0 (0.688) PTS = 399 PA = 327 Difference = 72
Picks = 8
Total Value = 1,181.70
Avg Value = 147.71
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
13030620.00  
23062284.00  
33094124.00  
34110584.00compensatory pick
42813538.50  
52917323.20  
6292137.20  
7302480.80  
Texans
9-7-0 (0.563) PTS = 279 PA = 328 Difference = -49
Picks = 7
Total Value = 1,296.90
Avg Value = 185.27
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
12525720.00  
22557330.00  
32589145.00  
42413141.00  
43514235.00Browns compensatory pick
52516924.80  
7252431.10  
Titans
9-7-0 (0.563) PTS = 381 PA = 378 Difference = 3
Picks = 8
Total Value = 2,957.40
Avg Value = 369.68
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
1551700.00Rams
11818900.00  
31983175.00  
336100100.00Rams compensatory pick
41812547.00  
52016426.80  
6302146.80Falcons
7182361.80  
Vikings
8-8-0 (0.500) PTS = 327 PA = 307 Difference = 20
Picks = 8
Total Value = 913.40
Avg Value = 114.18
RoundPickPlayerValueSource
21648420.00  
31579195.00  
32286160.00Dolphins
41412152.00  
42212943.00Dolphins
51616028.40  
61519912.80  
7142322.20  

The All-Time Greatest Super Bowl: Fantastic Comeback for Brady Led Patriots

By Chris Malumphy

We've probably just witnessed what is likely to be the greatest Super Bowl ever. Down by 25 points shortly after the half, the Tom Brady led New England Patriots rallied with 31 unanswered points in a fantastic comeback that required two two-point conversions and a trip into overtime before ending in a 34-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

The reason why the Patriots were able to overcome adversity, the coolness of coach Bill Belichick and the affect of Tom Brady's grace under fire are best described in Peter King's MMQB column at SI.com: "Funny thing," said offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels after the game. "When we came out after halftime, "Bill [Belichick] said to me, 'We'll be okay. Our guys believe. They will fight their ass off.' I think when you've got Tommy, you feel like there's never going to be any kind of panic in him, so there's never going to be any kind of panic in us."

The combination of Brady / Belichick has now won a record five Super Bowls in seven appearances. I've noted in the past that the Patriots have triumphed in the Super Bowl games even though Brady has often been outplayed, at least statistically, by his opposing quarterback. Super Bowl LI was yet another example. The Falcons' Matt Ryan had a passing rating of 144.1, the highest in any Tom Brady Super Bowl and the fourth best of all-time, completing 73.9 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Brady was a more pedestrian 95.2. Ryan gained 12.3 yards per attempt versus 7.5 for Brady. Ryan's average net yards per attempt adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions was 10.0 to Brady's 6.5. Where Brady sorely outplayed Ryan was in avoiding sacks and minimizing losses on those plays. Both Brady and Ryan were sacked five times each, but Brady had 62 pass attempts compared to just 23 for Ryan. While Brady was sacked 7.5% of the time he contemplated passing, the Patriots got to Ryan 17.9% of the time. Brady limited his sack losses to 24 yards. Ryan lost 44 yards on an equal number of sacks with the most important coming late in the fourth quarter when avoiding a loss could have permitted a field goal attempt that would have iced the game. Ryan had a great game statistically. Brady had a great game when it mattered most.

Super Bowl for 2016 Season
Patriots 34 - Falcons 28
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Matt RyanFalcons231773.928412.316.728.700.054417.9144.110.00104
Tom BradyPatriots624369.44667.510.823.211.65247.595.26.515104
Julian EdelmanPatriots100.000.00.000.000.0000.039.60.02104

Super Bowl Passing Statistics -- The Tom Brady Super Bowls
NameTeamAttCompPctYdsAvg
Att
Avg
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SackedYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/APct
Sack
Int
Rush
Yds
Matt RyanFalcons231773.928412.316.728.700.054417.9144.110.0017.90
Jake DelhommePanthers331648.53239.820.239.100.042810.8113.69.5910.80
Russell WilsonSeahawks211257.124711.820.629.514.831312.5110.69.5416.739
Eli ManningGiants744966.25517.411.234.111.46227.596.26.808.83
Tom BradyPatriots30920767.020716.710.0154.951.6161034.995.36.296.526
Kurt WarnerRams442863.63658.313.012.324.53286.478.35.6810.66
Donovan McNabbEagles513058.83577.011.935.935.94337.375.44.5312.70
Julian EdelmanPatriots100.000.00.000.000.0000.039.60.000.02

A somewhat unsung offensive hero for the Patriots was running back James White who had been playing in the shadow of teammate Dion Lewis since Lewis returned to action from injury. White had his biggest day of the season, amassing more receptions, more receiving yards and more yards rushing in the Super Bowl than in any other single game. White put three touchdowns and a two-point conversion on the board for 20 points in all. Belichick goes with the hot hand at running back and is never afraid to change his lineup when it's best for the team.

Rushing and Receiving by Week for James White
WeekOppAttYdsAvgTDTargetsRecPctYdsYds
Rec
Yds
Target
TDScore
01Cardinals144.007571.4408.05.70W 23 - 21
02Dolphins4194.804250.0105.02.50W 31 - 24
03Texans3124.002150.022.01.00W 27 - 0
04Bills4123.0055100.05010.010.00L 0 - 16
05Browns5265.206466.76315.810.50W 33 - 13
06Bengals7192.709888.9475.95.22W 35 - 17
08Bills2157.505240.0147.02.80W 41 - 25
10Seahawks252.5044100.0328.08.00L 24 - 31
13Rams3175.705480.0184.53.60W 26 - 10
14Ravens231.5033100.08127.027.00W 30 - 23
15Broncos3113.708337.5248.03.00W 16 - 3
16Jets11414.004375.03210.78.01W 41 - 3
17Dolphins294.5044100.0215.25.30W 35 - 14
20Steelers100.004375.082.72.00W 36 - 17
21Falcons6294.82161487.51107.96.91W 34 - 28
Total   461954.22866575.65528.56.44  

The Falcons also played a great game in many regards. However, the team's high octane defense, which did so well early in the game, could not overcome the time of possession differential that saw the Patriots with the ball for 40 minutes 31 seconds compared to 23 minutes 27 seconds for the Falcons. Being on the field for the equivalent of more than an extra quarter inevitably wore them down and the Falcons' offense was unable to lend assistance near the end when it could have cemented a victory.

Patriots Tom Brady v Falcons Matt Ryan: Super Bowl’s Best QB Match Up

By Chris Malumphy

The quarterback matchup in Super Bowl LI between the Patriots' Tom Brady and the Falcons' Matt Ryan is perhaps the greatest of all time. Ryan won the 2016 NFL Most Valuable Player Award completing the 2016 regular season with a passing rating of 117.1, the second highest of any Super Bowl quarterback trailing Tom Brady's marvelous 2007 season by a mere one tenth of a point. Ryan's average net yards per pass attempt of 9.03 is also the highest ever for a Super Bowl contestant.

Of course the 2016 version of Tom Brady is not too shabby either. By virtue of throwing just two interceptions, Brady enters the game with the lowest percentage of passes intercepted during the regular season at 0.5%. Brady is also difficult to sack, being brought down just 15 times, only 3.4% of his attempts during 2016. Overall, Brady enters the game with the lowest regular season percentage of attempts that ended in either a sack or interception at 3.4%. Ryan threw 7 interceptions (1.3%) and was sacked 37 times (6.5%). Ryan's attempts ended in either an interception or a sack 7.7% of the time.

The Falcons and the Patriots have the most explosive offenses in football. A big edge to the Patriots if both defenses play at the same level as they did during the regular season. The Falcons have to hope that Vic Beasley, who led the NFL with 15.5 sacks, can disrupt Brady early and often. The Patriots have a better duo at running back with LeGarrette Blount's power and Dion Lewis' burst. Individually, Falcons' wide receiver Julio Jones is unparalleled but the Patriot's Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Dion Lewis and Marcellus Bennett provide Brady with more than enough sticky-handed receivers who never seem to have trouble finding holes in the defense. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel provide Ryan with other targets in addition to Jones.

Here's hoping for a great game. The match ups are certainly top notch.

Regular Season Statistics for Super Bowl Quarterbacks
NameSeasonAttCompPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SackedYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
Pct
Sack
+ Int
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Tom Brady200757839868.948068.312.1508.781.4211283.54.8117.28.8898
Matt Ryan201653437369.949449.313.3387.171.3372356.57.7117.19.03117
Peyton Manning201365945068.354778.312.2558.3101.5181202.74.1115.18.87-31
Steve Young199446132470.339698.612.3357.6102.2311636.38.3112.88.24293
Joe Montana198938627170.235219.113.0266.782.1331987.99.8112.48.31227
Tom Brady201643229167.435548.212.2286.520.515873.43.8112.28.8164
Drew Brees200951436370.643888.512.1346.6112.1201353.75.8109.68.3133
Kurt Warner199949932565.143538.713.4418.2132.6292015.58.0109.28.3192
Dan Marino198456436264.250849.014.0488.5173.0131202.35.2108.98.94-7
Tom Brady201161140165.652358.613.1396.4122.0321735.06.8105.68.25109
Bart Starr196625115662.222579.014.5145.631.2261839.410.5105.08.01104
Roger Staubach197121112659.718828.914.9157.141.9231759.811.5104.87.81343
Donovan McNabb200446930064.038758.312.9316.681.7321926.48.0104.77.87220
Ken Stabler197629119466.727379.414.1279.3175.8192036.111.6103.47.45-2
Joe Montana198443227964.636308.413.0286.5102.3221384.87.0102.97.93118
Len Dawson196628415956.025278.915.9269.2103.5    101.7 167
Kurt Warner200154637568.748308.812.9366.6224.0382336.510.3101.47.4160
Aaron Rodgers201047531265.739228.312.6285.9112.3311936.18.3101.27.50356
Jim Kelly199034621963.328298.212.9246.992.6201585.57.9101.27.5063
Russell Wilson201340725763.133578.213.1266.492.2442729.811.8101.27.10539
Peyton Manning200655736265.043977.912.1315.691.614862.54.0101.07.9336
Chris Chandler199832719058.131549.616.6257.6123.74528312.115.3100.97.61121
Peyton Manning200957139368.845007.911.5335.8162.810741.74.599.97.51-13
Cam Newton201549529659.838377.813.0357.1102.0332846.38.199.47.20636
Troy Aikman199339227169.131007.911.4153.861.5261536.27.799.07.12125
Ben Roethlisberger200526816862.723858.914.2176.393.4231297.911.098.67.5369
Ken Anderson198147930062.637547.812.5296.1102.1251405.06.998.47.43320
Colin Kaepernick201221813662.418148.313.3104.631.4161126.88.198.37.55415
Matt Hasselbeck200544929465.534597.711.8245.392.0241545.17.098.27.15124
Mark Rypien199142124959.135648.514.3286.7112.67591.64.297.98.346
Earl Morrall1970935154.87928.515.599.744.31413113.116.897.66.186
Jim Kelly199147430464.138448.112.6337.0173.6312276.19.597.66.9545
Tom Brady201458237364.141097.111.0335.791.5211343.55.097.47.0157
Boomer Esiason198838822357.535729.216.0287.2143.6302457.210.597.47.79248
Rich Gannon200261841867.646897.611.2264.2101.6362145.57.097.36.95156
Ben Roethlisberger201038924061.732008.213.3174.451.3322207.68.897.07.35176
Joe Theismann198345927660.137148.113.5296.3112.4342426.99.197.07.22234
Kurt Warner200859840167.145837.711.4305.0142.3261824.26.496.97.00-2
Brett Favre199654332559.938997.212.0397.2132.4402416.99.195.86.61136
Russell Wilson201445228563.134757.712.2204.471.5422428.59.995.06.72849
Doug Williams19871438156.611568.114.3117.753.57534.78.094.07.329
Troy Aikman199543228064.833047.611.8163.771.614893.14.793.67.2232
Fran Tarkenton197327416961.721137.712.5155.572.63127010.212.593.25.99202
John Elway199835621059.028067.913.4226.2102.8181354.87.593.07.1194
Brad Johnson200245128162.330496.810.9224.961.3211214.45.792.96.5630
Eli Manning201158935961.049338.413.7294.9162.7281994.57.192.97.4515
Brett Favre199751330459.338677.512.7356.8163.1251764.67.692.66.82187
Tom Brady200447428860.836927.812.8285.9143.0261625.28.092.66.9228
Joe Theismann198225216163.920338.112.6135.293.63022310.613.891.35.90150
Ron Jaworski198045125757.035297.813.7276.0122.7272135.68.291.06.9495
Bob Griese197126314555.120897.914.4197.293.4232488.011.290.96.3582
Craig Morton197020710249.318198.817.8157.273.4201668.811.989.87.2237
Troy Aikman199247330263.834457.311.4234.9143.0231124.67.589.56.38105
Fran Tarkenton197641225561.929617.211.6174.181.9252215.77.689.36.2245
Joe Montana198148831163.735657.311.5193.9122.5261935.17.488.46.2595
Terry Bradshaw197528616557.720557.212.5186.393.1312909.812.688.05.43210
Joe Montana198839723859.929817.512.5184.5102.5342237.910.287.96.19132
Joe Flacco201253131759.738177.212.0224.1101.9352276.28.087.76.3322
Neil O'Donnell199541624659.129707.112.1174.171.7151263.55.187.76.6645
John Elway199750228055.836357.213.0275.4112.2342036.38.487.56.49218
Roger Staubach197736121058.226207.312.5185.092.5302197.710.087.06.03171
Tom Brady200141326463.928436.910.8184.4122.9412169.011.786.55.3943
Tom Brady200352731760.236206.911.4234.4122.3322195.77.985.95.9463
Roger Staubach197841323155.931907.713.8256.1163.9322197.210.884.96.18182
Billy Kilmer197222512053.316487.313.7198.4114.99673.88.584.86.26-3
Terry Bradshaw197836820756.329157.914.1287.6205.4212225.410.584.76.0593
Bob Griese197321811653.214226.512.3177.883.711754.88.384.35.7920
Steve Grogan19851568554.513118.415.474.553.211866.69.684.16.8329
Drew Bledsoe199662337359.940866.611.0274.3152.4301904.66.983.75.7627
John Elway198741022454.631987.814.3194.6122.9201384.77.483.46.74304
Jeff Hostetler1990874754.06147.113.133.411.19389.410.483.26.16190
Kerry Collins200052931158.836106.811.6224.2132.5282435.07.483.15.7865
Jim Plunkett198337923060.729357.712.8205.3184.74236310.014.382.75.1478
Jim McMahon198531317856.923927.613.4154.8113.5261257.710.982.66.11252
Fran Tarkenton197435119956.725987.413.1174.8123.4171424.67.982.16.13120
Craig Morton197725413151.619297.614.7145.583.14333814.517.282.05.09125
Stan Humphries199445326458.332097.112.2173.8122.6252235.27.781.65.8319
Jim Kelly199246226958.234577.512.9235.0194.1201454.18.181.26.0553
Daryle Lamonica196742522051.832287.614.7307.1204.7373348.012.380.85.61110
Jake Delhomme200344926659.232197.212.1194.2163.6231684.98.380.65.7439
Ben Roethlisberger200846928159.933017.011.7173.6153.2462848.911.880.15.21101
Jim Kelly199347028861.333827.211.7183.8183.8251715.18.779.95.58102
John Elway198650428055.634856.912.4193.8132.6322336.08.479.05.68257
Steve McNair199933118756.521796.611.7123.682.416744.66.978.65.72337
Roger Staubach197534819856.926667.713.5174.9164.6362139.413.578.55.40316
Joe Kapp196923712050.617267.314.4198.0135.52819810.615.578.54.99104
Terry Bradshaw197947225954.937247.914.4265.5255.3241964.89.977.05.8983
Trent Dilfer200022613459.315026.611.2125.3114.9231359.213.776.64.4775
Phil Simms198646825955.334877.513.5214.5224.7453598.813.174.64.9972
Rex Grossman200648026254.631936.712.2234.8204.2211424.28.273.95.212
Eli Manning200752929756.133366.311.2234.3203.8272174.98.573.94.8269
John Elway198941622353.630517.313.7184.3184.3352987.811.873.75.11244
Jim Plunkett198032016551.622997.213.9185.6165.03628510.114.672.94.65141
Joe Namath196838018749.231478.316.8153.9174.5151123.88.172.16.5111
Bob Griese1972975354.66386.612.044.144.17456.710.671.64.7411
Len Dawson19691669859.013238.013.595.4137.813897.314.569.94.633
Peyton Manning201533119859.822496.811.492.7175.116954.69.567.94.52-6
Tony Eason198529916856.221567.212.8113.7175.7282298.613.867.54.2370
Bart Starr196721011554.818238.715.994.3178.13432213.920.964.43.7590
David Woodley19821799854.710806.011.052.884.510825.39.563.53.90207
Terry Bradshaw19741486745.37855.311.774.785.4101046.311.455.22.92224
Vince Ferragamo19791105348.27787.114.754.5109.1111159.117.448.82.59-2
Frank Reich1992472451.12214.79.200.024.397616.119.646.50.98-9
Johnny Unitas1968321134.41394.312.626.3412.52155.917.630.1-0.47-1

Heresy! Patriots Tom Brady Has Been Outplayed by his Opposing Super Bowl QBs More Often Than Not

By Chris Malumphy

On Sunday, New England Patriots Tom Brady will extend his record of Super Bowl starts at quarterback to seven, two more than his closest rival, the Denver Broncos' John Elway. Brady will also have the chance to become the winningest Super Bowl quarterback ever. Currently, he shares the record of four Super Bowl victories with Terry Bradshaw of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Joe Montana of the San Francisco 49ers.

But despite all that success, Brady has actually been outplayed more often than not by his opposing Super Bowl quarterback, at least in common statistical terms. Of course, that is heresy. But it is also true.

In his six prior Super Bowls, Brady has squared off against the St. Louis Rams' Kurt Warner, the Carolina Panthers' Jack Delhomme, the Philadelphio Eagles' Donovan McNabb, the New York Giants' Eli Manning (twice) and the Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson. Only the New York Giants led by Eli Manning have been able to defeat Brady and the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.

Super Bowl Game Passing Statistics--The Brady Years
Super Bowl for 2001 Season
Patriots 20 - Rams 17
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Tom BradyPatriots271659.31455.49.113.700.0173.686.25.93133
Kurt WarnerRams442863.63658.313.012.324.53286.478.36.3690
Super Bowl for 2003 Season
Patriots 32 - Panthers 29
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Jake DelhommePanthers331648.53239.820.239.100.042810.8113.610.4092
Tom BradyPatriots483266.73547.411.136.212.1000.0100.57.712127
Super Bowl for 2004 Season
Patriots 24 - Eagles 21
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Tom BradyPatriots332369.72367.210.326.100.02175.7110.27.9-1112
Donovan McNabbEagles513058.83577.011.935.935.94337.375.45.1045
Super Bowl for 2007 Season
Giants 17 - Patriots 14
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Eli ManningGiants341955.92557.513.425.912.9388.187.36.8491
Tom BradyPatriots482960.42665.59.212.100.05379.482.55.4045
Super Bowl for 2011 Season
Giants 21 - Patriots 17
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Eli ManningGiants403075.02967.49.912.500.03147.0103.77.3-1114
Tom BradyPatriots412765.92766.710.224.912.42104.791.16.3083
Super Bowl for 2014 Season
Patriots 28 - Seahawks 24
NameTeamAttCPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SacksYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/ARush
Yds
Team
Rush
Yds
Russell WilsonSeahawks211257.124711.820.629.514.831312.5110.610.139162
Tom BradyPatriots503774.03286.68.948.024.0182.0101.16.2-357

Take note that the largest margin of victory in any of these six championship games has been four points. The games have been tight. One Brady victory was decided by what many consider to be among the worst strategic blunders in Super Bowl history, the Seahawks ill-fated decision to pass at the goal line rather give the ball to their workhorse running back Marshawn Lynch. One Brady loss is attributable to perhaps the most fantastic and improbable catch of all time when Eli Manning miraculously escaped the Patriots rush to heave the ball downfield to receiver David Tyree who even more miraculously trapped the ball overhead against his helmet as he tumbled to the ground with Patriots safety Rodney Harrison flailing in vain to knock the ball away. Tyree never again caught a pass in another professional game. There can be little doubt that the ice cold brilliance of Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick have combined to make the Patriots a juggernaut during the regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl alike. Yet statistically, Brady's opposing Super Bowl quarterbacks have more often done a little bit better. In terms of passing rating, Brady bested Kurt Warner (86.2-78.3) and Donovan McNabb (110.2-75.4), but was outplayed by Jake Delhomme (100.5-113.6), Eli Manning (82.5-87.3 and 91.1-103.7) and Russell Wilson (101.1-110.6).

The more “sophisticated” figure filberts who refer to “analytics” will let you know that passing ratings are flawed and that yards per attempt, and better yet, average net yards per attempt factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions, are more meaningful. (Heaven forbid with get into DVOA rankings which are beyond the bounds of this article.) By those measures, Brady was also outplayed by Kurt Warner (5.4-8.3 yds/att and 5.9-6.3 ANY/A). Nevertheless, Brady has won four and lost only two of his Super Bowl appearances. Take note again that in Brady's first three Super Bowl starts, all victories, the Patriots had the dominate rushing game, out gaining the Rams on the ground 133-90, the Panthers 127-92 and the Eagles 112-45. It has been a different story his last three Super Bowls including the two losses to the Giants and the game in which Seattle would have probably won if not for its lame-brained decision to pass rather than give the damn ball to Lynch. The Patriots were out gained on the ground by the Giants 45-91 and 83-114 and by the Seahawks 57-162. Without a decent ground game, Brady and the Patriots have been subject to the vagaries of luck. In his first Super Bowl victory, Brady was not much more than a game manager. Belichick was not yet quite sure of the talent he had and limited Brady to just 27 attempts, the fewest of any quarterback in these six games except for Russell Wilson's 21. In that initial appearance, Brady passed for a meager 145 yards. Warner passed for 365, more than 200 yards more than Brady. Brady had the full faith of Belichick by their second Super Bowl together and passed the ball 48 times and subsequently 33, 48, 41 and 50 in the following championships. Since that first Super Bowl, only Donovan McNabb has attempted more passes than Tom in Brady Bowls.

Take a look at Brady's aggregate passing totals compared to his individual opponents for these six games. Overall, Brady has just the fourth best passing rating of the six quarterbacks and the fourth best average net yards per attempt including factors for touchdowns and interceptions.

Super Bowl Passing Statistics -- The Tom Brady Super Bowls
NameTeamAttCompPctYdsAvg
Att
Avg
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SackedYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/APct
Sack + Int
Rush
Yds
Jake DelhommePanthers331648.53239.820.239.100.042810.8113.69.5910.80
Russell WilsonSeahawks211257.124711.820.629.514.831312.5110.69.5416.739
Eli ManningGiants744966.25517.411.234.111.46227.596.26.808.83
Tom BradyPatriots24716466.416056.59.8135.341.611794.395.36.225.811
Kurt WarnerRams442863.63658.313.012.324.53286.478.35.6810.66
Donovan McNabbEagles513058.83577.011.935.935.94337.375.44.5312.70

So how in fact has he won? Or is it just luck. After all, albeit for the Seahawks' brain fart, Brady would likely be just 3-3 in his Super Bowl games.

Well if it is talent rather than mere luck (and you don't get to the Super Bowl seven times by just being lucky), take note that Brady is tops overall in percentage completed at 66.4%. His closest competitor, to whom he has lost twice, is Eli Manning at 66.2%. But those steeped in analytics will tell you that completion percentage is much too pedestrian of a statistic to have meaning. Let's go further then. How about the simple facts that Brady has protected the ball and has avoided sacks. Brady's overall interception percentage of 1.6% has only been bettered by Eli Manning (the man who beat him twice) at 1.4% and Jake Delhomme who didn't throw an interception. Brady was also sacked far less frequently overall per pass attempt than his competitors. Brady was only sacked 4.3% of the time on pass plays. No one else was within two percent of that figure. Warner was next with 6.4%. McNabb went down 7.3% of the time. Arch-nemesis Manning was sacked 7.5% of his pass plays. Delhomme (10.8%) and Wilson (12.5%) faired much, much worse.

Calculate the rate at which the quarterback is either sacked or throws an interception per pass attempt and Brady's dominance is even more evident: Brady 5.8%, Manning 8.8%, Warner 10.6%, Delhomme 10.8% and Wilson 16.7%.

But truth be told, statistics and history matter little on Super Bowl Sunday. Former Dallas Cowboys legend Gil Brandt recently tweeted that quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience playing against those who have none are 9-10. Their are a lot of other players out on the field, some of whom may unexpectedly rise to the occasion while others give in to the pressures of the game. Coaches have sizable input, including the opportunity to make bone-headed strategic calls. The ball can take funny bounces. The referees may see an important play differently than players and fans. Anything can happen. That's why millions of us will watch. Yet here is one more set of quarterback statistics for you. Compare the seasons of Tom Brady and the Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan.

Passing Statistics for Super Bowl Starting Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan - Falcons
SeasonAttCompPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SackedYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/APct
Sack + Int
Rush
Yds
Games
100+
Rating
Total60942670.056749.313.3457.471.1402506.2119.09.67.213714
Regular53437369.949449.313.3387.171.3372356.5117.19.47.711712
Playoffs755370.77309.713.879.300.03153.8132.611.23.8202
Tom Brady - Patriots
SeasonAttCompPctYdsYds
Att
Yds
Comp
TDPct
TD
IntPct
Int
SackedYds
Lost
Pct
Sacked
RatingANY/APct
Sack + Int
Rush
Yds
Games
100+
Rating
Total51234166.642258.312.4336.440.8191053.6110.28.94.3629
Regular43229167.435548.212.2286.520.515873.4112.29.03.8648
Playoffs805062.56718.413.456.322.54184.899.58.17.1-21

Brady was fantastic. One of his best years ever. Ryan was even better, leading the league in passing rating. A quick check shows:

Both Brady and Ryan put up numerous games with passing ratings exceeding 100.0, which is usually a regular season game winning effort.

Ryan has upped his game in the playoffs, improving his numbers in every category. Brady has played well this post-season, but not as good as he did in the regular season. Who will you be betting on?

On Super Bowl Sunday, the numbers be damned. Tom Brady, his teammates, Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft, the Patriots' organization and its many fans will only care about one thing. Same for Matt Ryan and his other Atlanta Falcons counterparts. Whether their team's efforts lead to victory or defeat.

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