DraftHistory.com

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Saturday, February 06, 2010

Drew Brees Only 5th Starting Super Bowl Quarterback Drafted in 2nd Round

The quarterback selected earliest in the NFL Draft has won each of the past four Super Bowls. The New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees will attempt to stop that streak in Super Bowl XLIV when the first pick in the second round of the 2001 Draft faces the number one pick in 1998, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

Thus far, 43 Super Bowls have been played. Little more than half (44) of the 86 starting quarterbacks have been first round picks. The other 42 starters have been a smorgasboard of selections from other rounds as well as two undrafted quarterbacks. Only five Super Bowls have been started by 2nd round choices, 11 by 3rd round picks, four by 4th rounders, seven by 6th round choices, one by an 8th round selection, two by 9th round choices, four by 10th round picks, two by a 17th round choice, one each by 18th and 24th round picks, and four by undrafted quarterbacks.

Quarterbacks drafted in the first round have a better overall Super Bowl record (25-19, .568) than quarterbacks selected in any other round except the 17th round where Bart Starr was 2-0 and the sixth round where Tom Brady's prowess places that round ahead by a mere .003. No round other than the first is more than two games above or below playing .500 ball.

First round quarterbacks have faced off against each other nine times. That means first rounders are 15-10 (.600) when playing against teams led by quarterbacks selected in later rounds or not drafted at all. Given the number of Super Bowls played thus far, it is somewhat surprising that a first round quarterback has started against a second rounder only three times with the first rounders possessing a 2-1 (.667) record: Jim Plunkett (1st round) and the Raiders bested the Eagles' Ron Jaworski (2nd round) in 1981; Brett Favre (2nd round) and the Packers topped the Patriots' Drew Bledsoe in 1991; and John Elway (1st round) and the Broncos beat the Packers and Favre in 1998.

Brees will become only the fifth player drafted in the second round to start at quarterback in a Super Bowl. Brett Favre did it twice, and Ron Jaworski, Ken Stabler and Boomer Esiason started one each. Overall, second round picks are 2-3 (.400) as Super Bowl starters. Second rounders are 1-2 against first rounders and are 1-1 against later drafted quarterbacks: Ken Stabler (2nd round) beat Fran Tarkenton in 1977 while Joe Montana (3rd round) and the 49ers topped the Bengals' Boomer Esiason (2nd round) in 1989.

Football News

USA Today

• NFL Replay: Aggressive tactics boost mighty Saints to first title
• Saints stump Colts 31-17 to win franchise's first Super Bowl title
• Indianapolis Colts' homecoming brings out 11 people to airport
• Browns release suspended wide receiver Donte' Stallworth
• Brees confirms his elite status with Super Bowl MVP effort
• Sean Payton's onside gamble helps Saints win Super Bowl
• Colts' Dwight Freeney tries to put best foot forward
• Mardi Gras comes early for Saints' faithful in New Orleans
• Practice makes perfect: Porter's pick clinches Saints' victory
• Colts coach Caldwell's perfect ending proves elusive, too

ESPN

• For Drew Brees, Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints' Super Bowl victory is sinking in
• Newly reinstated WR Donte' Stallworth cut by Cleveland Browns
• Super Bowl seen by 106 million, bests "M*A*S*H" finale for all-time TV viewership record
• Odds on Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts to win 2011 Super Bowl
• Tom Brady's bonus could speed up extension talk with New England Patriots
• Chicago Bears' Mike Martz: 'Real strong connection' with Jay Cutler
• Leaders talk wording of San Francisco 49ers stadium measure
• Commissioner Roger Goodell says NFL needs more investment revenue
• Warren Sapp released on bond following domestic battery arrest
• Tim Tebow's Super Bowl ad hits light-hearted note

Sports Illustrated

• NFL Network to show Arena league's 2010 season
• Colts early faves to win Super Bowl next season
• Browns cut ties to suspended receiver Stallworth
• Brees, Saints revel in glow of Super Bowl victory
• Super Bowl becomes most-watched TV show ever
• Peter King: Two nobodies play vital roles in Saints' Super win
• Brees near-perfect in SB
• Super Bowl commercials go for laughs
• Brees answers 'Who dat?' with MVP performance
• Rice, Emmitt among 7 elected to Hall

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Saints and Colts Take Different Route to Building NFL Super Bowl Lineups

The 2010 Super Bowl contestants are a study in contrast as to how their starting lineups were built. On offense, the Indianapolis Colts depend solely upon home grown players with first round draft choices manning four of the skill positions: quarterback Peyton Manning, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark and running back Joseph Addai. Conversely, the New Orleans Saints starting offense will include three players cast-off by other teams (quarterback Drew Brees, tight end Jeremy Shockey and center Jonathan Goodwin) and will not include a first round draft pick of their own, although Shockey was selected in round one by the Giants. On defense, the Colts' starters are again homegrown, with the exception of tackle Antonio Johnson, but include only one first round draft pick, sack artist Dwight Freeney. The Saints' defense will counter with five players from other teams (end Bobby McCray, linebackers Scott Fujita, Jonathan Vilma and Scott Shanle, and safety deluxe Darren Sharper) and will have two first round draft choices of their own (defensive linemen Sedrick Ellis and Will Smith) and another who was originally selected by the Jets (Vilma).

Neither the Saints nor the Colts expended high draft picks to build the offensive lines that will start in the Super Bowl. The starting lineman drafted earliest for the Saints is Jonathan Stinchcomb, who was selected with the 5th choice in the 2nd round, the 37th player drafted in 2003. The remainder of the Saints' starting offensive linemen are 4th or 5th round picks. The Colts' starting offensive line will have three undrafted players, including perennial Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday, and a 4th and 6th round draft pick. The last time the Colts expended a first round pick on an offensive linemen was 1997 when they drafted Tarik Glenn of California with the 19th pick. The Saints last chose an offensive linemen in the first round when they selected Jammal Brown of Oklahoma with the 13th pick in 2005. Brown was unable to play this season. In an era when the prevailing thought is that you must have a strong offensive line anchored by a premier left tackle in order to succeed, it is a wonderment how the Colts and Saints flourished with such high octane offenses by constructing their offensive lines without using high draft picks.

General Managers and coaches around the league might also take note that not one of the defensive backs starting in the 2010 Super Bowl was a first round draft choice. There are usually one or two outstanding defensive backs available in each draft, but often as many as six or seven are taken in the first round. Of the eight defensive backs starting in the Super Bowl this year, the one drafted earliest was Tracy Porter, with the 9th pick in the 2nd round, the 40th player selected in 2008. Four of the defensive backfield starters were 2nd rounders, one was selected in the 3rd round, another in the 6th, and two were undrafted.

Football is a game for youth. Experience counts, but speed and strength can make up for a lot of errors. Safety Darren Sharper, drafted in 1997, will be the most experienced starter on the field. Quarterback Peyton Manning (1998) will be the only other starter drafted prior to 2001. Holder/backup quarterback Mark Brunell was drafted in 1993 and we all pray that he won't need to throw a pass, unless it's on a fake kick.

Players don't need to come from big-name schools to make it to the Super Bowl. Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon comes by way of Division III Mount Union College. Saints guard Jarhi Evans played at Bloomsburg (PA). Wide receiver Marques Colston comes from Hofstra. Fullback Kyle Eckel was at Navy. Safety Antoine Bethea at Howard. Defensive tackle Daniel Muir is from Kent State University.

Kent State is a college worth mentioning once again. It has produced some fine talent in recent years including three 2010 Pro Bowl selections: Steelers linebacker and Super Bowl hero James Harrison, Cleveland kick returner deluxe Joshua Cribbs, and perennial All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates of Chargers. Wide receiver Julian Edelman, another Kent State alumni, also did well in his limited late-season role replacing the injured Wes Welker in New England. With Daniel Muir starting in the Super Bowl, Kent State will have more starters in the big game than Notre Dame and Texas combined, just as they did in the Pro Bowl (see 2010 Pro Bowl Talent Found In Each Round of the NFL Draft). Now that's really something for a mid-size school in a small conference whose name is generally only talked about when an historical event that occurred nearly 40 years ago is mentioned.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

2010 Pro Bowl Talent Found In Each Round of the NFL Draft

Pro Bowl selections are meant to honor the best players at each position and allow them to display their talents for the fans in a post-season exhibition game. Players are selected in a vote of players, coaches and fans. While the vote may sometimes overlook worthy players in favor of those who are better known, yet less talented, the selections tend to be highly representative of the finest talents in the league. Thus it can often be instructive to review when Pro Bowl players were drafted to determine when the finest talent was found at each position.

The AFC and NFC rosters each have spots for 42 positions: three quarterbacks, three running backs, a fullback, four wide receivers, two tight ends, two centers, three guards, three tackles, three defensive ends, three defensive tackles / nose tackles, three outside linebackers, two inside linebackers, three cornerbacks, three safeties, a kicker, a punter, a kick returner and a special teams specialist. For the 2010 Pro Bowl, 83 players were initially elected with Philadelphia Eagle DeSean Jackson being honored at both wide receiver and kick returner. Because several selected players will be unavailable to play in the Pro Bowl due to injury or other commitments, like the need to prepare for the Super Bowl game, several alternates have subsequently been added to the roster, but those additional players are not part of this analysis.

Of those 83 initial selections, 40 players (48%) were 1st round draft picks, 15 (18%) players were selected in the 2nd round, 6 (7%) in the 3rd round, 8 (9%) in round four, 3 (4%) in round five, 2 (2%) in the 6th round, 1 (1%) in the 7th round, and 9 (11%) players were undrafted. [Read more below the table].

At some positions, almost all the Pro Bowl selections were high draft choices, while the best players at other positions were frequently lower choices or undrafted players. Despite the fact that a sleeper develops now and then, most of the Pro Bowl quality quarterbacks are drafted very high. In 2010, three of the six quarterbacks selected were 1st round draft choices: Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rogers. Manning was selected with the 1st pick in 1998, Rivers with the 4th pick in 2004, and Rogers with the 24th pick in 2005. Two of the quarterbacks were among the first picks in the 2nd round: Drew Brees with the 1st pick in round two in 2001 and Brett Favre with the 6th pick of round two in 1991. Only Tom Brady is an anomaly, being taken in the 6th round in 2001, the 199th player selected. The odds are overwhelming that if you want a top flight quarterback, you must draft one early. Developing a star quarterback using a later pick sometimes happens, but the odds are against it.

All six Pro Bowl running backs were drafted within the first two rounds. First round selectees include: Adrian Peterson (7th choice, 2007), Steven Jackson (24th, 2004), Chris Johnson (24th, 2008), DeAngelo Williams (27th, 2006). The two second rounders were probably also 1st round talents at the time of the draft but probably sank into round two due to worries about their size: Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. Although it is readily apparent that top running back talent is easily recognized by the NFL (since the best are taken early in the draft), note that it is hard to remain at the top for long, since only Steven Jackson was drafted earlier than 2006.

Fullbacks are almost an afterthought at draft time. Le'Ron McClain was drafted in the 4th round in 2007. Leonard Weaver was not drafted at all.

Wide receiver is a mixed bag. Great talent is often drafted early (Andre Johnson was selected with the 3rd pick in 2003 while Larry Fitzgerald went with the 3rd pick in 2004), but quality talent is often available much later in the draft as evidenced by Brandon Marshall, a 4th rounder, the 119th player piced in 2006 as well as the undrafted Wes Welker and Miles Austin. Serious wide receiver talent is frequently available late in round one (Reggie Wayne) as well as in round two: DeSean Jackson and Sydney Rice.

Great tight ends can come out of nowhere like the undrafted Antonio Gates, or third rounder Jason Witten, but they might also be primo specimen like Vernon Davis, the 6th pick in round one in 2006. Dallas Clark is another tight end drafted in the 1st round that has done quite well.

Over the past decade, nearly all of the best offensive tackles were high draft picks. Those selected for the 2010 Pro Bowl are no exception. Four of the six spots are 1st rounders: Jake Long was taken number one in 2008, Joe Thomas was number 3 in 2007, Bryant McKinnie was 7th in 2002, Ryan Clady was number 12 in 2008. Johnathan Stinchcomb was the 5th pick in the 2nd round in 2003. Jason Peters is the outlier, being undrafted. If you want the best offensive tackle, you had better pick him early, because he will not last long in the draft.

Guards and centers, on the other hand, are more often selected later. Although four of the six guards elected to the 2010 Pro Bowl were drafted in the 1st round, only Leonard Little was taken early, and he was originally drafted as a tackle. Little was the 2nd pick in 2001. The rest of the 1st rounders come after the round was half over: Steve Hutchison was the 17th pick in 2001, Alan Faneca was 26th in 1998 and Logan Mankins was 32nd in 2005. Jahri Evans was a 4th round selection who was originally drafted as a tackle. Kris Dielman was undrafted.

Of the four centers, two were undrafted: perennial Pro Bowler Jeff Saturday and less recognized Shaun O'Hara. Nick Mangold was a 1st round pick in 2006 while Andre Gurode was a 2nd round choice in 2002. Note that Eric Mangini selected Mangold when he was coach of the Jets, and followed it up by selecting another center in the first round, Alex Mack, when he moved to the Browns. The Browns hope they can be as successful in the long run.

The defensive ends elected to the 2010 Pro Bowl are split evenly between two distinct categories: those selected with premium draft choices or those selected much later. In fact, defensive end is the only position that is represented by three players drafted later than the 2nd round. The three defensive ends drafted in the first round were Mario Williams (1st player selected in 2006), Julius Peppers (2nd player, 2002) and Dwight Freeney (11th, 2002). At the other end of the draft spectrum, Jared Allen was selected in the 4th round, the 126th player in 2004, Robert Mathis was picked in round 5, the 138th player in 2003, and Trent Cole went in the 5th round, the 146th player in 2005. The reason for the sharp dichotomy in where the best defensive ends are drafted may be simple. The best defensive ends are noted for their pass rushing skills. The players coming out of college with that skill are often tweeners: players who may, or may not, be best at linebacker or defensive end. Often they play one position in college and the other in the pros, especially if they are not large and hefty. Often their pass rushing skills from a down position are developmental. They are often talented athletes who's potential as NFL starters remains questionable.

Because their pass rushing ability is somewhat thwarted by playing in the middle of the line, defensive tackles generally don't receive the recognition awarded to defensive ends. Nevertheless the majority of premier defensive tackles in the 2010 Pro Bowl were 1st round selections: Kevin Williams was the 9th pick in 2003, Haloti Ngata was the 12th choice in 2006, Casey Hampton was the 19th in 2001, and Vince Wilfork went 21st in 2004. Darnell Dockett was a 3rd round selection, the 64th pick in 2004. Jay Ratliff almost missed being drafted and wasn't selected until the 7th round, the 224th pick.

Those tweeners who aren't suited for defensive end in the pro game are generally shifted to outside linebacker. Thus, we also see a bit of a dichotomy at this position. The outside linebackers on the 2010 Pro Bowl team were generally mid first round choices, with the others being drafted later or not at all. Those selected in the 1st round include: Demarcus Ware, 11th pick in 2005, and  rookies Brian Orakpo, 13th, and Brian Cushing, 15th, in 2009. Lance Briggs was a 3rd round draft selection, the 68th player in 2003 and Elvis Dumervil (a true tweener) was a 4th round choice, the 126th player in 2006. James Harrison of football powerhouse Kent State was undrafted.

And folks, I'm not being snide about Kent State. Although they are not even the best team in a small conference, they continue to produce quality, albeit sometimes unorthodox players. For the second year in a row, Kent State is sending three players to the Pro Bowl: Antonio Gates, James Harrison and Joshua Cribbs. To put that in a little perspective, that is as many 2010 Pro Bowl selections as come from University of Texas. It is more than come from current national champion Alabama. It is more than come from either Notre Dame or Ohio State. In fact it is as many as Notre Dame (0), Ohio State (1) and Alabama (2) combined. If his late season play is any indication, it is not inconceivable that wide receiver Julian Edelman, another product of Kent State, could also join them in the future. Scouts should make a point of checking out the players who attend Kent State, they may find more gems.

The position of inside linebacker is represented entirely by players selected in the top 33 picks of the draft. First rounders include Patrick Willis, 11th player in 2007, Jonathan Vilma, 12th player in 2004 and perennial selection Ray Lewis, 26th player in 1996. DeMeco Ryans was taken with the 1st pick in the 2nd round, the 33rd player, in 2006.

I never know what to say about defensive backs. The best tend to be recognized early by being taken in the 1st round. But their are so many 1st round misses, as there are with wide receivers, that NFL teams have to do their due diligence in scouting these players twice over before safely expending a draft choice on them. Cornerbacks need speed, maneuverability, the ability to tackle now and again, and an overabundance of confidence and daring to succeed. They can never afford to dwell on the last play, but must always be focused on what is happening at the moment. One mistake and it's all over. One good decision and the outcome of an entire game can be changed. Super premium draft picks that have worked out for years include: Charles Woodson, 4th player selected in 1998 and Champ Bailey, 7th player picked in 1999. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was the 16th pick in 2008, Darrelle Revis was taken with the 14th pick in 2007 and Nnamdi Asomugha was the 31st choice in 2003. Asante Samue was overlooked until the Patriots selected him in the 4th round, the 120 pick in 2003.

Only one of the six safeties was drafted in the first round, but none of the players selected to fill that position in the 2010 Pro Bowl were drafted later than the 64th player. All-time great Ed Reed was the 24th player selected in the 2002 NFL draft. Second rounders include: Jairus Byrd, 42nd player in 2009, Nick Collins 51st player in 2005, Darren Sharper, 60th player in 1997, and Brian Dawkins, 61st player in 1996. Adrian Wilson was drafted in the 3rd round, the 64th player of 2001.

NFL teams only occasionally draft players solely for their special team talents, and then it is typically only the kickers. Place kicker Nate Kaeding was a 3rd round choice in 2004 while David Akers went undrafted. Punter Shane Lechler went in the 5th round in 2000 while Andy Lee was taken in the 6th round in 2004.

The most awesome special teams player in the NFL is currently Joshua Cribbs who no holds the all-time record for kick-offs returned for a touchdown. Cribbs has also regularly led the Browns in special team tackles, at least until this year when the team attempted to take advantage of his versatility by playing him as a wide receiver, slot back and runner from the wildcat. Cribbs was a quarterback in college at Kent State, but frankly his passing days are behind him. Nevertheless, he is one of the most exciting players in the league. Cribbs was undrafted. Most NFL teams just can't spot, or won't take a chance on, non-traditional talent. But that is just what the 6th and 7th rounds are for. The other Pro Bowl kick returner is DeSean Jackson. As noted, he was drafted in the 2nd round in 2008 as a wide receiver. He has not disappointed. His stellar return skills are just a bonus.

Both special team specialists, Kassim Osgood and Heath Farwell went undrafted.

Note how youth prevails in the NFL. Only Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Alan Faneca, Ray Lewis, Champ Bailey, Charles Woodson, Darren Sharper and Brian Dawkins entered the league prior to 2000. Surprisingly, four of those eight are defensive backs where speed is necessary, but where undoubtedly as these selections show, experience also prevails.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Watch Blood Equity on Hulu

Just finished watching Blood Equity on Hulu.com. It's a compelling look at the plight of some of older pro football players and their battle to gain assistance from the NFL Players Association for those who are down and out due to the injuries they suffered as players. John Mackey, Willie Wood, Harry Carson, Daryl Johnston, Joe DeLamielleure, Tony Dorsett, Mike Webster and Mike Ditka are featured. Highly recommended. It is an eye opener.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Colts Loss in “Meaningless” Game With Jets has a Lot More Meaning Now

Just a thought. Won't it be a bit more than a little ironic if the Jets upset the Colts this weekend. After all, it was the Colts who pulled their starters in the December 27 game against the Jets that both President Bill Polian and Coach Jim Caldwell deemed as meaningless since the Colts had already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs. While they focused on keeping their players healthy for the playoffs, they not only deflated the spirit of a team that had the chance to make history by going undefeated, but they also kept the then faint playoff hopes of the Jets alive. Now those little Jets, whose talented defense matches up as well as any possibly could against Peyton Manning, and whose strong running attack has the capacity to shred the Colts defensive weakness if things go their way, have the opportunity knock those same Colts right out of the playoffs. I think that chain of events might keep those Colts' fans talking during the off-season.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Underclassmen Entering 2010 Draft by Position

Underclassmen will once again have a significant impact when NFL teams go to their draft tables at the end of April. Underclassmen entering the 2010 NFL Draft include 2008 Heisman Trophy Winner Sam Bradford of Oklahoma amd defensive stalwart Rolando McClain of the national champion Alabama Crimson Tide. McClain was the winner of the 2009 Butkus Award for the best college linebacker. Other all-americans entering the draft who still have college eligibility are defensive backs Eric Berry (Tennessee) and Joe Haden (Florida), defensive end Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech), tight end Aaron Hernandez (Florida) and wide receiver Golden Tate (Notre Dame). Among all these studs, Oklahoma Sooner defensive tackle Gerald McCoy may be picked the soonest, at least according to Mel Kiper, who has predicted that McCoy may go as high as the second pick to the Detriot Lions after the St. Louis Rams take Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen will also be attractive to the many NFL teams in search of a quarterback experienced in the pro-style of play. Jahvid Best of California will also be of interest to teams seeking a running back.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Bills Name Chan Gailey as New Head Coach

It's been over a decade since he roamed the sidelines in the NFL as a head coach, but the Buffalo Bills named Chan Gailey as their new leader after being rejected by a host of others including Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan and even Brian, not Marty, Schottenheimer. To Gailey's merit, he comes with a winning career record in the NFL at 18-14, and made trips to the playoffs in both years he was head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. In 1998, Gailey led Dallas to a divison championship with a 10-6 mark. In 1999, the Cowboys fell to 8-8 but still made the playoffs. Dallas Owner Jerry Jones has admitted he probably made a mistake in firing Gailey. Under his successor, Dave Campo, the Cowboys suffered three consecutive years of 5-11 ball. Campo was followed by Bill Parcells, who took Dallas to the playoffs twice in four years but never won a playoff game. Under Wade Phillips, the Cowboys have been to the playoffs twice in three years, winning their first playoff game since 1996 in 2009. Gailey got his new job 2 weeks after his 58th birthday.

Gailey, who plans to call his own offensive plays, was fired as offensive coordinator by Todd Haley and the Kansas City Chiefs shortly before the 2009 season began. Gailey was head coach at Georgia Tech from 2002 through 2007 where he was 44-32, .569. Excluding interim coaches who coached for one game each, Gailey was preceded at Georgia Tech by George O'Leary, who was 52-33, .612, and followed by Paul Johnson who is 20-7, .741.

In other coaching news, the Cowboys will stick with Wade Phillips who has led the Dallas to a 33-15 regular season record. In San Diego, Norv Turner will keep his job after leading the Chargers to a 32-16 record during the regular season.